Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline: Good for the US?
Despite warnings from our “Special wounded animal for Afghanistan and Pakistan” to hold off, Iran and Pakistan have concluded a deal for a pipeline bringing Iranian gas to energy starved Pakistan. Now India wants to get in on the deal too. India was an original party to the project but pulled out under American pressure in 2008. Now the Indians have come to realize that economically this is one of the more efficient solution to their future needs.
This pipeline if implemented will have two significant impacts on US interests in the region.
1) The Negative: The pipeline will undermine American attempts at isolating Iran. Whereas the pipeline project doesn’t appear to run afoul of recent sanctions, Iran getting access to the vast Indian and Pakistani markets (by population) will undermine American attempts at isolating Tehran.
2) The Positive: The pipeline aligns Indian and Pakistan economic interests in a way that doesn’t have a historic parallel. Increasing economic interdependence between the two neighbors is good for the regional stability. As we are learning the hard way, a lot of what is happening in Afghanistan is a result of the regional chess game between Indian and Pakistani interests.
Question is: Does the positive here outweigh the negative? I think so since to me the negative is status quo (sunk cost) and will happen no matter what. It’s the inevitability of geography and not something that America can control. Once we accept that, this is a good deal for the US.
Toy Story: AF-Pak Edition (Exclusive)
Pakistan got new toys (F-16s) this week. The local press with a reuptation for conspiracy mongering reports that the F-16′s come with strings attached. The claims are:
1) The toys can only be played with under adult supervision. (i.e. The US will be sending monitors to make sure that the kids don’t go crazy).
2) The toys can only be played with in a manner that the US has agreed to. (i.e. no attacking India).
Pakistani Air Force officials deny these allegations. But then this blog stumbles across a federal contracting request that contradicts the Pakistanis.
A document associated with this reqest indicates that 5 US Military personnal (2 officers and 3 enlisted) will be stationed with the F-16′s (along with 28 contractors) to supervise the kids during their play time. The mission is described as:
maintain a presence on Pakistan Air Force (PAF) installation where Pakistan F-16 aircraft …,which are subject to security note compliance, are located [and to] monitor, assess and report PAF activities…
Another story that the “conspiracy prone” Pakistani press seems to have gotten right while their Government is clearly lying to them. Someone at the GSA obviously messed up posting this publicly.
Pakistan palling around with China
There was the free trade pact, then there was a nuclear export deal, last week there were joint anti-terror military exercises on TV. Now comes word that there are additional deals being made in agriculture, healthcare, justice, media, economy, and technology.
Two problem here: 1) where are the American-Pakistani joint anti-terror exercises out in the open for everyone to see? 2) Isn’t the purpose of our assistance to help Pakistan with all the areas they are cutting deals with China in? Why do we have to give them aid when they are cutting commercial deals with China in the same sectors.
But hidden deep inside this CFR article is something more revealing
President Zardari announced that he would visit China every three months, a commitment that he’s largely stuck to
You would have thought given the blood and treasure we are spending in the region Zardari (even though he is nominally incharge) would be summoned to DC every 3 months for an audience with our leadership. Instead we keep sending Holbrooke of the “wouned animal” fame to the region to make sure he can piss everyone off with his massive ego. The Chinese have Pakistan’s full attention, we obviously don’t. Refer to story #2 for a possible reason.
Off Topic: Mitt smackdown
This is probably one of the most comprehensive take downs I have ever witnessed. Ouch Mitt.
I have never seen anything quite as shabby, misleading and—let’s not mince words—thoroughly ignorant as Mitt Romney’s attack on the New START treaty in the July 6Washington Post (full article)
COIN: Is it bound to fail in AF/PAK?
New York Times highlights the continuing Pakistani struggle with what is essentially their version of our COIN strategy. The military clears the militants out from an area, tries to facilitate the delivery of McChrystal’s famous “government in a box” and finds that the militants just wait them out and return.
Months after declaring victory on several important fronts, including in South Waziristan and the Swat Valley, the army has been forced to reopen campaigns after militants seeped back in. True victory remains elusive. (full article)
If I was at the Pentagon I would be studying the Pakistani campaign closely and be increasingly worried about our own strategy. Pakistan has an imperfect Government by any measure, but compared to the folks in Kabul they are light years ahead. If a quasi functional Government like Pakistan can’t make COIN work in their own country, then what are the chances that we as foreigners can make it work with the help of a dysfunctional regime in Kabul? I think we are still too drunk with Iraqi surge kool aid to appreciate the realities on the ground in AfPak.
Update: Newsweek highlights the same issue that Taliban are more than happy to wait everyone o ut.
Calls for fresh elections in Pakistan
Pakistan’s ruling party is under seige due to a new scandal relating to fake diplomas. Demands are growing for fresh elections to be called. Pakistani law requires (or at the time of elections required) that candidates hold a bachelors degree or equivalent to serve in parliament. About 100 members of Parliament from both the opposition and the Government are suspected of submitting fake degrees to meet the eligibility requirement. Until a judicial ruling last week, there were doubts about the Prime Minister’s degree and continuing eligibility. The Government appears to be politically weakened at this time but is expected to survive this scandal. A new election would definitely throw a “monkey wrench” in US’ Af-Pak strategy.
Sometimes nothing else needs to be said
I couldn’t have put it any more eloquently than this.
Leading indicator of progress (or lack thereof) in Afghanistan
June 20 was the World Refugee Day. UNHCR was kind enough to remind us that 2.7 million Afghans (about 10% of the population) still live as refugees outside of it’s borders, most of them in Pakistan where they took refuge from the Soviet invasion.
Hidden among the various UNHCR reports is the number of refugees voluntarily returning to Afghanistan each year. This voluntary return statistic correlates strongly with the historic security situation in Afghanistan and I would argue is a leading indicator of how things are going (my hypothesis below).
After the fall of the Taliban in 2002 when things were looking up for Afghanistan there was a mass exodus of people back into the country from refugee camps in Pakistan and Iran with about 2 million refugees returning to Afghanistan that year. Since then the numbers have fluctuated with the security situation in the country. In relatively calm years almost half a million people have returned and in violent years like 2009 the numbers have dipped below 100K. 2010 even though better than 2009 is not looking good compared to historical trends (so much for the surge working)
My hypothesis: People vote with their feet when making choices about their future. If these refugees see better opportunities in Afghanistan they will get up and leave in droves as they have done in years where things have looked up in Afghanistan. After all, UNHCR pays them a princely sum by Afghan standards to leave and host Government have made every effort to make life as hard for them as possible. Those that have decided to stay have made the determination that living in “squalor camps” is a better option than moving back to Afghanistan. If things start to turn around in Afghanistan that calculus will change and more and more people will start moving back.
Here is the rule of thumb that I have developed: voluntary return numbers of less than 150K annualized means status quo or deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. Greater than 300K returns implies positive change on the ground. I will provide updates on the fall numbers once they become available.
Off Topic: FIFA World Cup Prediction
Stories you missed from the region 6/25
1) Pakistani Federal budget passes the lower house of parliament despite an opposition walk out. The disagreement related to a new tax proposals. Defense spending is lower in real terms and doesn’t bode well for US strategy in the region. Two other interesting items from a US perspective relate to appropriations for two new nuclear power plants and for the gas pipeline project with Iran.
2) The Chinese get it, we don’t. Instead of wasting tax payer money on dubious aid projects they have quickly moved to further trade ties with Pakistan. After signing the first free trade agreement with Pakistan in 2006 just this week they further liberalized the trade regime by granting additional and unilateral trade concessions to Pakistan worth almost $500mm. No wonder when the Chinese speak up the Pakistanis listen. Having an ongoing relationship (i.e through trade) is a much more effective way to align interests with Pakistan rather than a relationship based on transactions (i.e. we will send you aid dollars this year if you do our bidding).
3) The NYT story today about Pakistan bringing disparate militant factions to the table makes a lot of sense from a geo political standpoint. Since MSM is covering this I am not going to spend time on it except to recommend it as a good read.
I am going to predict a US victory over Ghana.
